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Share this. On This Page. EZ Baccarat Introduction I first saw EZ Baccarat on July 3, , at the Plaza in Las Vegas. After arriving at candidate systems, computer simulations are run to see if these systems can generate an edge in practice.
If there is an edge, the question then becomes if this is significant enough to become an opportunity for the advantage player.
Table 2 shows the number of winning and losing hands that result from removing one card from an eight-deck shoe, along with the house edge after removing that card.
Table 2 allows us to compute the effect on the house edge for the Dragon bet by removing each card. Table 3 gives these results.
The middle column EOR shows the change in house edge when the indicated card is removed. The final column EOR x indicates potential card-counting tags to use in an optimal system.
Also, the 7 is the most important card, as expected, to remain in the shoe. The other cards diminish in value as their pips go down, presumably because they are used in fewer and fewer situations to draw to a dealer total of 7.
The reader will most likely consider it daunting to use system 1 in practice. However, as a baseline counting system, it is worthwhile to see how it performs.
In an effort to simplify this unwieldy system as much as possible, I also considered the card counting system with tags 0, 0, 0, -1, -1, -1, -1, 2, 2, 0.
To gauge the effectiveness of each, I wrote a computer program to simulate using these two systems in live play.
The game I simulated has the following shuffling and cut card rules:. Shortly after this article was published, I realized that I had made an error that caused me to significantly underestimate the player advantage.
This error was caused by using single-deck estimations for the remaining cards in the shoe, rather than determining the exact true count based on the fractional decks remaining.
I revised my simulation program and confirmed my updated results with Steve How of discountgambling. I apologize for any inconvenience I may have caused the reader.
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